In early July, hebei, shandong, henan wheat grain of wheat harvest has been completed. Hebei ZhengDingXian farmers CaoShuFang not like usual, hurry to the new plan, he sold as wheat prices go up again some more.
"This new wheat rose to $1.04 a catty August last year, only one jins, these days more hair should also can go up again." CaoShuFang said. He hope that can compensate the loss reduction.
Agricultural prices continue to rise, the first year of SiWuYue from vegetable started later mung bean, garlic, agricultural prices shot up custom, etc. Speculation is believed to be the capital of the last round prices. At this stage, the state macro-control, tried to punish hoarding enterprise, speculation. Control policy implementation in rice, corn, wheat, and agricultural commodities prices have been etc.
Meanwhile, as the price of cotton textile industrial raw material and chanting. China's cotton association, director of the center for information WangAiFang told this reporter from 2009, domestic cotton prices fall, has decade highs.
Many experts believe, wheat field and cotton prices on agricultural commodities, BuZhang is normal, On the other hand, to a certain extent, is the capital of the tight supply using market expectations, the short-term results.
The price at record highs
Cotton prices fall began in early 2009, according to WangAiFang analysis rises gradually, "so far, and the 2008/2009 annual average price comparison, cotton prices, or a 30% to 40-50 years history, is the peak".
On July 6, domestic stock price index (Chinese cotton CCIndex328) 18383 yuan/ton, compared with the end has risen nearly 4,000 yuan.
As the raw materials of textile industry, domestic cotton, cotton spinning 95% for cotton, cotton yarn from, and finally to weave, printing and dyeing, finished export, widely downstream industry chain, raw material prices are constantly to downstream conduction.
Hebei province shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager, cotton yarn prices, the price pull at the price of cotton when compared with spring up about one-third.
"When they feel in April of yarn, then store up prices, but the cost is too high, and only two months." Chongqing business yarn business. Xiao li,
Such as cotton, cotton yarn, as raw material costs rise sharply lower of textile enterprises, clothing industry processing cost pressures increasingly feel. China's cotton association released the survey report shows that the high price of raw cotton fabric garment enterprises to lower profits, many enterprises to choose the shutdown, weaving and garment enterprises in order of time are more cautious.
"The cotton price has risen too far off, but the cotton price space is limited, we worry when prices fell from the risk is too big, we no longer after the Spring Festival, specializing in production of cotton prices relatively stable polyester fabric." Hebei province shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager, "said the factory specializing in cotton, also only retains a small amount of weaving cotton production, to keep the source, and the rest is to produce other fabric."
Do the tianjin foreign trade company export cloth, because production sales, cost of sales and rising currency fluctuations, the export of textile enterprises now have narrowed scale, "2007, less than 50% of the scale of 2008."
With cotton prices of wheat, a similar change before the summer of lower prices. According to Chinese flour nets material, shandong liaocheng market price of wheat KaiCheng is following yuan/jins, after all, wheat price sale price in farmers' till 1 yuan/jins, individual dealer bid $1.01 in flour enterprises, / purchase price in 1.02 yuan/jins.
In hebei, anhui, jiangsu, wheat prices are rising, wheat all parts in trans-provincial, even buying wheat agitation. "But even so, purchase or buy enough wheat, farmers are common psychological." rised China international institute of middle cotton futures limited YouTao what analysts said.
Fry over real estate speculation cotton?
In the east, MaWenFeng agriculture analyst Edgar wheat and cotton seems agricultural commodities prices continued strong, is in the basic supplies tight products supply and expectations, under the situation of social capital market, attracting lots of great people manipulating factors.
Overall, along with the global economy after the financial crisis has warmed by 2010, China's textile industry, the first smooth operation, year-on-year, export value of 13.4% kept fast growth, and domestic market continue exuberant. Textile clothing for the recovery of cotton driven demand.
But did not follow the supply of cotton. In financial crisis in the demand of textile and apparel, sharp atrophy, the cotton market demand fell cotton, the 2008/2009 annual average prices for cotton 12159 yuan/ton, in recent years, the price hit cotton growers, Agricultural materials and artificial cost increase prices, is pushing up cotton production cost, 2009 cotton planting area, both yield. At the same time, domestic production of cotton import previous one-third share has dropped dramatically; now, And the factors influencing the expected this year, the market will be postponed, 2005 showed the time gap bigger market short-term.
Based on this, the cotton price rises for changes in supply and demand relation can be understood. But the cotton exchange information published in accordance with the 2009, cotton, cotton purchase price cost should be in at around $15,400, sales to 18,000 above and always in high level up to four months, rare.
"In the internal can feel this cotton prices are rising so fast." China's cotton association, director of the center for information WangAiFang pointed out that other industries in price rises, the cotton price is the price, thus "unusual", may be hot money now, real estate "before fry to fancy cotton".
China international futures Co., LTD in the middle HeYongTao institute of cotton analysts found in the long-term observation, although overall demand, but among the enthusiasm of the traders preparation, and textile and garment industry needs a stable downstream. Although cotton prices, but the spot market clinchs a deal is cool, wait-and-see atmosphere.
He thinks, because of the high cost and the RMB appreciation, textile and clothing downstream industry generally high prices decline, worried about losing money, so much storage tend to side by side replenish onr's stock, slowly digesting. But lesser risk among traders pitters, do not eliminate their inventories, hoarding.
"Have poured the middlemen make hair!" Shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager has been exclamation, "if only we had a see prices, purchased some more quickly.
BuZhang or manipulate? Policies to control
The future price movements? Long-term since, low prices, Chinese policy and all kinds of subsidies minimum prices for reuse subsidise farmers. Beijing university professor LuFeng that prices reflect the market, the market main body of the signal, and show up behind the rarity of wheat is on the increase. He pointed out that the root lies in rising prices, is the macroeconomic looser monetary policy, mung bean, garlic in the drive and the agricultural prices, stimulating agricultural commodities prices BuZhang backwardness.
Agriculture policy secretaries ZhangGongYu emphasize, cotton, etc, and agricultural commodities prices, the contradiction between supply and demand, the labor cost, etc, but also has not ruled out of excess liquidity in the capital. Agricultural commodities prices to rise steadily, restorative farmers' income, but also by means of adjustment of price control, in a certain range.
MaWenFeng analysis, prices will continue to late, but because the government has sufficient reserves of food, even if the wheat production, supply and demand fundamentals of balance tight, but will not change, not a substantial rise rapidly. And the relevant departments in the research, has suspended a takeover of the storage, demonic policy since July, wheat prices start steady running.
But the regulation does not like wheat and cotton as easily. Since June, because the cotton price rises quickly, the national development and reform commission announced two cotton import quotas, also increased cast reservoir 600,000 tons of plan is approved, trading rules has been completed, if the market need, we can start.
Policy is issued, the market for cotton once worried, cotton futures fell regulation, but as information gradually digestion and high profits, cotton yarn, cotton demand spot prices continued to rise, cotton futures prices rise gradually stabilises, stronger still.
In that country, HeYongTao only 150 tons of cotton storage circumstance, although has approved the reservoir, but cast 600,000 tons of 60 tons is only a month demand, market, regulating the market ability is limited. He pointed out that, in the market to cast the rumors of reservoir, the price has certain effect, the price rapidly reduces 1000 yuan, from 17,000 to 1.6 million, but later confirmed after 600,000 tons, the market trend and recovery, and rising prices rise again.
China's cotton association survey report also says, because the policies, market pending gradually digestive bad news, the market, the price is lower yarns, cotton prices further support.
"Now, 600,000 tons of price and time out, if there is no price significantly below the market price, may also have certain repression of the market. HeYongTao said. "but if plus weather effects of late, XinJiangMian and main contract may high in shock."
MaWenFeng points, cotton prices eventually spread to the industry chain, or kept by the end of the terminal consumers pay and. He estimates that the next spring, daily textiles price will rise by 20%.
WangYuanHong thinks, because cotton, wheat were not end-consumption limited impact on the CPI, may this year, mainly because of the CPI increase year QiaoWei factors, the new price accounts for only one to three points. And industry thinks, in July, after the CPI basic will smooth, money can keep now, because can make economic growth, should increase dropped too structural adjustment.
"Chinese textile net source."
Editor: lara
"This new wheat rose to $1.04 a catty August last year, only one jins, these days more hair should also can go up again." CaoShuFang said. He hope that can compensate the loss reduction.
Agricultural prices continue to rise, the first year of SiWuYue from vegetable started later mung bean, garlic, agricultural prices shot up custom, etc. Speculation is believed to be the capital of the last round prices. At this stage, the state macro-control, tried to punish hoarding enterprise, speculation. Control policy implementation in rice, corn, wheat, and agricultural commodities prices have been etc.
Meanwhile, as the price of cotton textile industrial raw material and chanting. China's cotton association, director of the center for information WangAiFang told this reporter from 2009, domestic cotton prices fall, has decade highs.
Many experts believe, wheat field and cotton prices on agricultural commodities, BuZhang is normal, On the other hand, to a certain extent, is the capital of the tight supply using market expectations, the short-term results.
The price at record highs
Cotton prices fall began in early 2009, according to WangAiFang analysis rises gradually, "so far, and the 2008/2009 annual average price comparison, cotton prices, or a 30% to 40-50 years history, is the peak".
On July 6, domestic stock price index (Chinese cotton CCIndex328) 18383 yuan/ton, compared with the end has risen nearly 4,000 yuan.
As the raw materials of textile industry, domestic cotton, cotton spinning 95% for cotton, cotton yarn from, and finally to weave, printing and dyeing, finished export, widely downstream industry chain, raw material prices are constantly to downstream conduction.
Hebei province shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager, cotton yarn prices, the price pull at the price of cotton when compared with spring up about one-third.
"When they feel in April of yarn, then store up prices, but the cost is too high, and only two months." Chongqing business yarn business. Xiao li,
Such as cotton, cotton yarn, as raw material costs rise sharply lower of textile enterprises, clothing industry processing cost pressures increasingly feel. China's cotton association released the survey report shows that the high price of raw cotton fabric garment enterprises to lower profits, many enterprises to choose the shutdown, weaving and garment enterprises in order of time are more cautious.
"The cotton price has risen too far off, but the cotton price space is limited, we worry when prices fell from the risk is too big, we no longer after the Spring Festival, specializing in production of cotton prices relatively stable polyester fabric." Hebei province shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager, "said the factory specializing in cotton, also only retains a small amount of weaving cotton production, to keep the source, and the rest is to produce other fabric."
Do the tianjin foreign trade company export cloth, because production sales, cost of sales and rising currency fluctuations, the export of textile enterprises now have narrowed scale, "2007, less than 50% of the scale of 2008."
With cotton prices of wheat, a similar change before the summer of lower prices. According to Chinese flour nets material, shandong liaocheng market price of wheat KaiCheng is following yuan/jins, after all, wheat price sale price in farmers' till 1 yuan/jins, individual dealer bid $1.01 in flour enterprises, / purchase price in 1.02 yuan/jins.
In hebei, anhui, jiangsu, wheat prices are rising, wheat all parts in trans-provincial, even buying wheat agitation. "But even so, purchase or buy enough wheat, farmers are common psychological." rised China international institute of middle cotton futures limited YouTao what analysts said.
Fry over real estate speculation cotton?
In the east, MaWenFeng agriculture analyst Edgar wheat and cotton seems agricultural commodities prices continued strong, is in the basic supplies tight products supply and expectations, under the situation of social capital market, attracting lots of great people manipulating factors.
Overall, along with the global economy after the financial crisis has warmed by 2010, China's textile industry, the first smooth operation, year-on-year, export value of 13.4% kept fast growth, and domestic market continue exuberant. Textile clothing for the recovery of cotton driven demand.
But did not follow the supply of cotton. In financial crisis in the demand of textile and apparel, sharp atrophy, the cotton market demand fell cotton, the 2008/2009 annual average prices for cotton 12159 yuan/ton, in recent years, the price hit cotton growers, Agricultural materials and artificial cost increase prices, is pushing up cotton production cost, 2009 cotton planting area, both yield. At the same time, domestic production of cotton import previous one-third share has dropped dramatically; now, And the factors influencing the expected this year, the market will be postponed, 2005 showed the time gap bigger market short-term.
Based on this, the cotton price rises for changes in supply and demand relation can be understood. But the cotton exchange information published in accordance with the 2009, cotton, cotton purchase price cost should be in at around $15,400, sales to 18,000 above and always in high level up to four months, rare.
"In the internal can feel this cotton prices are rising so fast." China's cotton association, director of the center for information WangAiFang pointed out that other industries in price rises, the cotton price is the price, thus "unusual", may be hot money now, real estate "before fry to fancy cotton".
China international futures Co., LTD in the middle HeYongTao institute of cotton analysts found in the long-term observation, although overall demand, but among the enthusiasm of the traders preparation, and textile and garment industry needs a stable downstream. Although cotton prices, but the spot market clinchs a deal is cool, wait-and-see atmosphere.
He thinks, because of the high cost and the RMB appreciation, textile and clothing downstream industry generally high prices decline, worried about losing money, so much storage tend to side by side replenish onr's stock, slowly digesting. But lesser risk among traders pitters, do not eliminate their inventories, hoarding.
"Have poured the middlemen make hair!" Shijiazhuang huate textile Co., LTD ZhaoLanNing manager has been exclamation, "if only we had a see prices, purchased some more quickly.
BuZhang or manipulate? Policies to control
The future price movements? Long-term since, low prices, Chinese policy and all kinds of subsidies minimum prices for reuse subsidise farmers. Beijing university professor LuFeng that prices reflect the market, the market main body of the signal, and show up behind the rarity of wheat is on the increase. He pointed out that the root lies in rising prices, is the macroeconomic looser monetary policy, mung bean, garlic in the drive and the agricultural prices, stimulating agricultural commodities prices BuZhang backwardness.
Agriculture policy secretaries ZhangGongYu emphasize, cotton, etc, and agricultural commodities prices, the contradiction between supply and demand, the labor cost, etc, but also has not ruled out of excess liquidity in the capital. Agricultural commodities prices to rise steadily, restorative farmers' income, but also by means of adjustment of price control, in a certain range.
MaWenFeng analysis, prices will continue to late, but because the government has sufficient reserves of food, even if the wheat production, supply and demand fundamentals of balance tight, but will not change, not a substantial rise rapidly. And the relevant departments in the research, has suspended a takeover of the storage, demonic policy since July, wheat prices start steady running.
But the regulation does not like wheat and cotton as easily. Since June, because the cotton price rises quickly, the national development and reform commission announced two cotton import quotas, also increased cast reservoir 600,000 tons of plan is approved, trading rules has been completed, if the market need, we can start.
Policy is issued, the market for cotton once worried, cotton futures fell regulation, but as information gradually digestion and high profits, cotton yarn, cotton demand spot prices continued to rise, cotton futures prices rise gradually stabilises, stronger still.
In that country, HeYongTao only 150 tons of cotton storage circumstance, although has approved the reservoir, but cast 600,000 tons of 60 tons is only a month demand, market, regulating the market ability is limited. He pointed out that, in the market to cast the rumors of reservoir, the price has certain effect, the price rapidly reduces 1000 yuan, from 17,000 to 1.6 million, but later confirmed after 600,000 tons, the market trend and recovery, and rising prices rise again.
China's cotton association survey report also says, because the policies, market pending gradually digestive bad news, the market, the price is lower yarns, cotton prices further support.
"Now, 600,000 tons of price and time out, if there is no price significantly below the market price, may also have certain repression of the market. HeYongTao said. "but if plus weather effects of late, XinJiangMian and main contract may high in shock."
MaWenFeng points, cotton prices eventually spread to the industry chain, or kept by the end of the terminal consumers pay and. He estimates that the next spring, daily textiles price will rise by 20%.
WangYuanHong thinks, because cotton, wheat were not end-consumption limited impact on the CPI, may this year, mainly because of the CPI increase year QiaoWei factors, the new price accounts for only one to three points. And industry thinks, in July, after the CPI basic will smooth, money can keep now, because can make economic growth, should increase dropped too structural adjustment.
"Chinese textile net source."
Editor: lara
time:2010/7/18
count:0