Recently, MA1011 together CF1101 cotton zheng 16200 dollars contract separately from $16700, near the outbreak of "type", to September 6, respectively 18550 rushed 18600 yuan RMB, and rises up with 11.4 percent. While nearly 20 days, the average GuoChuMian BiaoZhunJi cotton clinch a deal valence also have breakthrough 18000 yuan RMB yuan, 18500 18300, 6 September, actually reach 18922 yuan/ton (net settlement), cast with domestic electronics store price rises sharply quote of linkage, just a listing of the 2010 / cotton prices on the straight year 2011 4.0 yuan/catty (37-4), cotton lint 38%. Currently, the cotton market forces, participate in more speculative do large mill and the demonic auction KaiCheng part of processing enterprise that zheng CF1105 will take regular cotton to 20,000 yuan RMB 190. Once the capital and weather, zheng cotton to 1995 23,000 yuan high not possible. From technical Angle, this still does not have seen amid signs.
With store clinch a deal the price, electronic cast above 2000 disk rally late August weak spot prices rise again, cotton, cotton reason 3 goods warehouse to price 18300-18400 yuan/ton (male), with the basic GuoChuMian clinch a deal the price, the price CF1009 disk, therefore, is a reasonable price in the interval, did not produce deviation.
So the bull market power? The author thinks: first, the global economy, China's economy continued to prevent economy picking up, all the second "agent" monetary stimulus does not exit, instead of agricultural commodities (18.65 - and - with the obvious 1.22%) inflation, Second, Russia and Europe countries severe drought during the early rain on global wheat, corn market supply shocks, maize large anticipated major exporter of American policy and exacerbating the weather in global supply market worry, July, the international market to 50% of the wheat, the inflationary pressures to input Chinese agricultural market fluctuations, cotton farmers, again become price-comparison focus of the government, enterprises, the relevant departments of the state will again raise the minimum purchase grain guided, Third, late August Yellow River basin has been rainfall and temperature, southern xinjiang in xinjiang in north China and is expected to wind down 8-10 degrees for speculative find the "power" in 2010, the excuse of cotton supply gap year 2011 / expansion and cotton highs this year, plus approved purchase processing enterprise general "not bad" QiangShou cotton, change the pattern, Fourth, since the late August GuoChuMian to participate in bidding, the enterprise average reached more than 300, some early MianJia that high consumption of inventory mill upon entry, some bid again and live and push the high mill, the price of cotton, cotton price level with the SRB approximation 19,000 yuan/ton (containing), not only sell cotton mill, and actively yarn and fabric of the ex-factory price falls stabilises, comprehensive check inventory of low price hike cotton manufacturers brewing, Fifth, the USDA through high global consumption and reduce the final inventory, shrinkage cotton yield ways on imports of Chinese enterprises, ICE disk, port bonded through 90 cents to offer the cotton prices sharply domestic electronic early September, near the spot, m. on offer at cotton 100 cents per pound of market characteristics, internal and external interaction obviously, Sixth, 8, 9 August domestic cotton supply gap appeared, 600,000 tons of comprehensive GuoChuMian cotton increased the selling enterprise to 2010 year 2011 / cotton supply fears, reduced to 60 tons of resources, which can flow control, bull think weakened by the open country / 2011 storage of hope.
Then later on whether the cotton market to $19,000 and 20,000 yuan? The author thinks, at present, electronic plate is capital market, zheng CF1105 flung wide range of cotton main contract, approximate $20,000 yuan not impossible, short on the offensive strength is limited, but in the long term, CF1105 from December 11, fell to $17,000 / even under dynamic existence, and the spot market level cotton to break the 18500 yuan/ton, rise to the top 19,000 yuan/ton of hope is not. The following reasons: first, although the 2010/2011 annual general after push lint listing 15-20 days, but late September and early October 2005 showed will focus on the price listed, the impact of reservoir, Second, the present market price of cotton, cotton purchase price is far higher than expected, the relevant departments of the state of the funds will be issued economy.in view of caution, GaHuaChang KaiCheng takeover also not positive results, with a sales will drop, cotton listed Third, large and medium-sized mill in early digest inventory or higher, demonic will no longer be rational; to clinch a reservoir Fourth, the country's continued tightening monetary signs of mill, 2011 facing pressure flow, Fifth, many countries in Europe, of our country textile clothing import restrictions, plus the pressure on the appreciation of RMB and export market is back.

"Chinese textile net source."
Editor: lara