On September 7, ministry of information industry and the operation monitoring expanded with the Chinese academy of social sciences industrial economic institute jointly promulgated the 2010 industrial economy operation summer report. The following is the text:
By 2010, China's industrial economic operation during the summer
(2010) on September 7,
Since this year, in central continue to deal with the international financial crisis, accelerate economic development mode change a series of policy measures, the overall industrial economy continues to rise in the latter half of last year, continue to run toward the macro-control of the expected direction. Industrial production kept fast growth, enterprise management improved obviously, restoration of export trade, energy conservation and emission reduction, backward production steadily, structural change and development mode change making headway.
One year, since the basic situation of industrial economy operation
(a) production growth slowdown, high energy saving and emission reduction, and backward effect, active control as gas-guzzling industry growth dropped sharply. 1-7 months above, the scale of the industrial sector year-on-year growth of 17%, accelerate 9.5 percent year-on-year growth, in the second quarter of the year's first quarter 19.6%, 15.9 growth, 6, 7 two months respectively to 13.7 percent growth and Macao. If considering factors influence over the same period last year, with base in 2008, compared to nearly 1-7 base on average growth rate, one quarter 12.1% 12.1%, the second quarter growth was 12.4%, 6, 7 two months for growth and 12.1%, economic operation, 12.2% to further consolidate the smoothness. Points light-heavy industries, 1-7 months, light and heavy industry value-added year-on-year growth 13.6%, compared with about 5.5 months respectively, accelerate and 11.2 percent in July, growth and 13.3%, light 13.5 percent faster than 0.2 percentage point of heavy industry, changed since last June for heavy industry growth since 13 months faster than light, light and heavy industry growth of economic growth tends to coordinate econonmy further.
State teleconference on energy conservation, all localities and departments increased energy conservation and emission reduction and backward productivity, high growth momentum containing excessive industry. 1-7, 6 high value-added industries by quarter growth to 19.6% in July, 16.2% slowing growth and 10.5%, fell 1.3 percent faster than all above-scale industrial fast 1 percent. With the high speed of industry, industrial energy back to slow the over-increase of momentum. Unit has added a year-on-year growth of energy from the quarter 0.38% to 1.25% year-on-year drop. According to China's power enterprise federation, 1-7 months, the electricity industry, increase year-on-year growth of 22.6% than quarter dropped five percentage points, In July the electricity industry and 15.3% year-on-year growth dropped 0.4 percentage points.
(2) enterprise management status, tax and to further enhance employability, small and medium-sized enterprises to improve the operation. 1-7 months, the national bureau of statistics 24 provinces above-scale industrial (1-5 months advocate business wu income of all above-scale industrial 82.1%) accumulative total profit margins 61.1 percent year-on-year growth over the same period last year, sales of the 5.15% rise to 6.16%, total tax year-on-year, average number of employees to 29.9% 6.7 per cent year-on-year.
Small and medium-sized enterprise production, operation condition to further accelerate growth. 1-7 months above, the scale of small and medium-sized enterprises, year-on-year growth 18.2% value than all above-scale industrial average fast 1.2 percentage points. 1-5 months, small and medium-sized enterprises above designated size 9696 billion yuan, profit tax amount 5722 billion yuan, and 28.7% 72.2% year-on-year growth, the proportion of all above-scale industrial 51.4%; and 63%. 6673 to absorb employment, increase year-on-year growth of 7%, 439.
(3) of the stable growth of domestic demand and foreign trade export gradually restored. 1-7 months, above-scale industrial sales value, including domestic 32.4% year-on-year growth 33.1% respectively, the proportion of the total output value reached 86.8% sales increase in 2009, the same than 0.5 percentage points, than the same period in 2007 and 2008 3.4 and increase 5.2 percent. With the fixed asset investment growth, TouZiLei production rate dropped significantly slowing of industrial growth, the consumption of the econonmy enhancement. 1-7 months of domestic consumer, industrial output all above-scale industrial domestic output growth rate rose to 23.5% than half and quarter, improve and 0.7 1.4 percentage points.
Exports last year in the lower base faster growth. 1-7 months, above-scale industrial export value of year-on-year growth than in 2008, from chlorobenzene 8.2%, including growth than 1-2 month period in 2008, 3.2%, 4, 5, 6, 7 five months of 2008 growth than 8.1% and 9.3 per cent, 11.9, 12.3% and 9.1%. According to the customs statistics, 1-7 months, our country foreign trade exports 8505 billion dollars, year-on-year, in 2008 than 35.6 5.8% growth period, if consider such factors, the dollar is still not fully recovered to international financial crisis before.
By 2010, 2007-1-7 months above-scale industrial domestic and export changes
(4) industrial investment structure, technical renovation improvement of industrial econonmy strengthening. 1-7 months, the national industrial investment in fixed assets, increase year-on-year increase year-on-year drop 22.1% 5.1 percent, One manufacturing investment growth than quarter dropped 0.7, 25.1% of six percentage points, high investment growth over the same period last year by the back to 23.8% 15.3 percent. Technical renovation in promoting the role of connotative development industry. The central finance issued by 2009 4441 a technical renovation and special discount subsidy project construction, all 6326 planned investment of 5 million yuan, the total capital 4219 billion yuan in 3443 billion yuan, investment, Project has been completed, complete investment 2.2.4.5.4.3 1 638 billion yuan. All technical renovation work always value, industrial structure adjustment obvious technical input from. According to not complete count, the provincial local fiscal year of the total capital for technical about 200 billion yuan.
(5) key industry adjust to achieve positive results, the revitalization of the growing crisis obvious effect. Early 2009 nations successively promulgated automobiles, steel, textiles, equipment manufacturing, shipping, electronic information, light industry, petrochemical, non-ferrous metal, logistics and other top ten key industry adjust and revitalization plan. Planning for more than a year. The first seven months of this year, the revitalization of key industries involved in planning and adjust nine industry value; the year-on-year growth of complete 1 - may realize the profit 1.13 billion yuan, growth 84.8%. Adjust the industrial structure made new progress. Especially the state council on further strengthening backward production work, promote enterprise merger and reorganization about further accelerate the steel industry structure adjustment to promote the healthy development of industry and so on a series of opinions of the industrial policy implementation, speeding up the enterprise by m&a, backward step. Steel industry this year, pushing m&a benxi steel, steel annexation north Taiwan general angang steel shougang merger and reorganization, tianjin at pangang combined steel enterprises jointly established four tianjin bohai steel Co., LTD. Auto production in 2009 1,000 million this year, after the 1-7 months and reached 1021 million vehicles and 1026 million cars, and among 43.6 percent year-on-year. The first seven months to finish, national shipbuilding million tons, 3,520 87.4% year-on-year growth, because new undertake rapid rise, the whole industry orders with orders to the basic state of flat by the end of 2009.
(6) the region economy coordinated development, high technology industry development momentum. 1-7 months, the eastern, central and western regions above-scale industrial added value 16.1 percent year-on-year growth of 19.9%, and the western region to the proportion of the value added by large-scale industry by 2008 rose by 38.9% period 37.7%. High technology industry, higher year-on-year 17.7% added all above-scale industrial 0.7 percentage points, including biological pharmaceutical and biological products, integrated circuit growth growth less-selective college, electronic computers and regretted rose 17.9 per cent of office equipment, medical equipment and instrument 18%. 1-7 months, in the software business income grows 29%, accelerate 6.8 percent.
Second, the industrial economic operation of the main difficulties and problems
Currently, the industrial economy operation are undermined by up to the steady growth of the key period of change. Keep industrial fast yet steady economic development, but the favorable conditions for many difficulties and problems of economic operation of many, especially the instability and uncertainty factors in the short term, significantly more intertwined, and long-term contradictory domestic factors and international factors influence each other, internal and external environment of economic operation of the complex and changeable, must prepare ahead, and actively.
(a) global economic recovery is still fragile foundation, the outlet pressure increased
Currently, unemployment remains at 9% and high - 10%. Major countries in difficult, deficit expected this year the U.S. government deficit to 10% of GDP, eurozone 16 countries average 7%, Japan to $19 ChangZhaiLv high, to governments tightening of fiscal expenditure total demand, greatly compression. European sovereignty debt crisis may exacerbate the continuation of the euro against the dollar, and the dollar since April, the RMB appreciation against the euro to Chinese exporters to 15%, brings great pressure, in the next few months to Europe debt crisis of the negative effects of China's export trade may appear. According to China's trade remedies, the year to the first quarter increased obviously by the new global 19 anti-dumping investigation and new start 15 trade protectionism, according to Chinese export commodities separately for 9 and 10, total 47 percent and 67, international trade protectionism, strengthen the international trend in China's trade remedies, including eu were 38 7, involving a value reached $46 billion.
(2) investment growth is slowing, enterprise technical transformation to establish long-term investment mechanism.
1-7 months, the town of fixed asset investment growth, 24.9% dropped eight percent, more than half 0.6 percent drop. According to the national bureau of statistics data reconstruction in the first half of this year, total investment 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 21.1%, projecting 7.7 percent below the new investment, reconstruction of social investment only finish the fixed asset investment amount 12.5%. At present, the attention and support, the company welcome, where the technical renovation work of social concern has basically formed pattern. To improve the technical innovation and technological guidance to the enterprises, and increasing technical input, revitalize the stock assets and the realization of the connotative development. To speed up the establishment of long-effect mechanism, further perfect technical modification methods of management, management of technology, fully improve the quality and benefit of enterprise management transformation of the mode of economic development the important role.
(3) backward productivity and repetitive construction task facing greater difficulties, structural adjustment
Steel, cement, chemical, flat glass parts, such as traditional industries repetitive construction and malignant competition, overcapacity, backward production still considerable proportion of. Wind power equipment and polycrystalline industries have blind construction began. Currently China has built poly project design capacity, four thousand tons of construction projects designed capacity of more than 60,000 tons, total about 10 tons. Along with market demand at home and abroad, but also due to turn into all aspects of structure adjustment of the relationship between interest, especially the backward and m&a, working policy concerned range, organization and coordination mechanism is very difficult to reform and innovation, difficulty bigger.
(4) energy saving task, time, pressure
Since the first in 2009, with China's economic rise gradually, high, high emissions industry rapid growth, and makes the unit consumption value up not down. The first seven months of this year, a year-on-year growth of value, heavy light faster than about 4.8 percent, including six per cent year-on-year growth of high value-added industries, A year-on-year growth of 22.6%, electricity industry, light and heavy industry growth of 13.5 24.6% and electricity to power, heavy, than last year the corresponding period 83.8% 1.3 percent increase. This quarter, the added energy units, although year-on-year drop 0.38% first 1.25% declines, but after a few months, energy consumption. Now already organization under the state council to 18 DuChaZu six key areas for energy conservation and emission reduction, and work to ensure that the supervision and inspection over work harder, ensure the "11th five-year plan" saving the task.
(5) complex business environment, the difficulty of the production and operation of enterprises
One is the energy, raw material prices rise rapidly, employment pressure. 1-7 months, factory-gate prices 5.8 per cent year-on-year increase, and raw materials, fuel, power purchase prices have risen 10.5%, including fuel, power purchase prices by 21.3%. Since this year, Yangtze river delta and pearl river delta and other coastal areas wage costs rise 20-25% of the general. 2 is small and medium-sized enterprise reflects the financing of increase. Despite the commercial Banks to take a single new credit arrangement, small size, safety assessment method alone, orderly town bank loans, and promote mutual funds and regional development of small and medium sized financial institutions, but the difficulty in financing smes in the short term to substantially improved since this year, the bank reserve ratio for raised three times, enterprises financing costs, sme financing will be more prominent. Three is to export instability expected worry. Give priority to with export processing manufacturing enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises by exchange rate fluctuations, the influence is expected, not undertake large sheet, the long list of the phenomenon. Four is droughts and floods. In spring, the southern provinces happened, shortage of droughts in new projects, or delay shutdown reconstruction. Since the summer, guangxi, jiangxi, gansu and shaanxi, jilin, etc and have a flood, and the natural disasters, debris large industrial production and operation of enterprises. Five is since this year, new housing control policy despite preliminary effect, but prices remain high in general, the huge economic operation of industry, the impact should not be ignored.
Third, the economic operation will appear before the "low" after high
From the present situation of operation, due to low last year after year before the "high" trend, the second half of industrial growth will influence to a certain extent, is expected to fall below 10% year later, still can reach about 13%. Mainly based on the following aspects: the judge from leading indicators, economic growth will further slowed. Since this year, year-on-year growth of investment in fixed assets investment growth, rational recovered. This year, July 1 - new housing area increased every September 22 million square meters, 67.7% year-on-year drop in May, 3.7 percentage points. Manufacturing purchasing managers index since the second quarter dropped, but there is still remain in more than 50%, April, May 55.7% reached a high back to back to June, 53.9 52.1%, July 2007 to continue to fall. Second is the real estate market regulation on the implementation of the policy of combination, electrical appliances, building materials, furniture, such as steel and cement, the demand for commodities will impact. Three is RMB appreciation, European sovereignty debt crisis of the second increased exports of uncertainty. In addition, the platform for local government financing to overcapacity liquidation, a series of measures such as the suppression of the second half, will also affect the industrial growth.
Chat, raw material industry as the key industries of macro-control, energy conservation and emission reduction, backward production task, also weakened by fixed assets investment and late last year, especially in the fourth quarter growth soared, radix higher factors, the second half of growth will appear larger drop. 1-7 months, raw materials, industrial sector year-on-year growth rate than 15% has the value added by large-scale industry, and 2 percent growth rate is expected to fall, obvious annual growth than last year, half of the average level of 12% growth in 8%.
The equipment manufacturing industry in fixed asset investment, consumption and exports will keep pulling, continuous, stable and fast growth. 1-7 months in urban fixed-asset investment in equipment and instrument, the purchase price in last year on the base of keeping the pace of 20.5%, Auto output reach 1021 43.6 million, an increase in expected annual auto production, 16 million, about 15 per cent year-on-year, Export value of a year-on-year growth of the industry, from 9.3% in 2008 than last year, reverse 6.8% declining situation. From the overall operation, 1-7 months equipment manufacturing, added a year-on-year growth of 22.7%, and faster than all above-scale industrial 5.7 percent drop in the monthly, growth, is expected to moderate year-round growth will reach about 18.5% last year (13.8%), in the second half to 14% - 15% of the interval.
Consumer goods industry will continue to benefit the steady growth of domestic consumption and export of rapid rise, keep running smoothly. From domestic consumption market changes, 1-7 months, the total retail sales of consumer, year-on-year growth accelerated 18.2% 3.2 percent year-on-year, deduct price growth factor, practical with flat last year, In the old country home appliance, etc. To encourage consumption policy in new countryside, home appliance to effect appeared 3927 product sales, sales amount to 838 billion yuan, year-on-year growth of 1.8 times and 2.4 times, the main electrical appliances product yields rise rapidly. In export trade, 1-7 months, consumer goods export value of 22.2% year-on-year growth of industrial growth in 2008 than 10.8 percent. From the overall operation, 1-7 months, consumer, industrial sector year-on-year growth is expected to increase by 15% last year about 13% (to 10.8 percent), second to around 12% growth.
Electronic manufacturing industry, foreign dependence high export value of industry more than 60% of the proportion of the value of sales. With the expansion of domestic and international market thaw, domestic policy effect, export and investment growth, keep pace with industry has obvious rise running. From export, 1-7 months, electronic manufacturing export value of year-on-year growth in 2008, the same than 29.3% 15.3 percent growth in the industry, is one of the fastest rebounded. From the domestic market, integrated circuit, flat panel display, new material and new lighting project, home appliance, increased obviously countryside third generation (3G) mobile communication technology and new technology products market commercial pull. From the overall situation, industry, July 1-4 added a year-on-year growth of electronic industry, according to the current situation of the operation and is expected to reach more than 15% annual growth in value (5.8%), for the last year later growth by 10%.
Four, make effort to adjust the structure and industrial development, change the sustainable development
Accelerate development mode change, advance structural adjustment, is the current and future a period of important strategic tasks. Currently, the industrial economy operation is in the key period, in keep national fast yet steady economic growth at the same time, we should pay more attention to promote structure adjustment, pay more attention to promote the transformation of development mode, and strive to do economic growth and structural adjustment to promote each other. Grasp the second should focus on the following aspects:
(a) to maintain stability and continuity of macroeconomic policy, make great efforts to realize the industrial economy rebounded to run by the steady growth of the market
One is to continue implementing key industries, continue to implement the plan to reinvigorate adjust and perfect the policy of expanding consumer, promote household electric appliance, auto and energy-saving products. Second is the implementation of the state council on further promoting the development of small and middle-sized enterprises, some opinions of relevant provisions of small and medium-sized enterprises to promote the healthy development of smooth, increase the economic sustainable development. Three is to strengthen the overall and systematic, policy analysis, select the product price reform, environmental protection and resource property taxes, fees levied, deposit reserve rate adjustment policies of the appropriate time, handle all aspects of conflict, due to the policy effect to business with negative effects of enlargement. Four is strengthening economic forecasting warning monitoring, closely followed the development of the situation changes, to strengthen the sovereignty of European exchange rate fluctuations, debt crisis, the real estate market, auto market and the weakening of the change in track and analyze the new situation and new problems, and put forward countermeasures study suggest.
(2) based on expanding domestic demand, consumer of industrial growth pull role
One is to continue to implement promote household electric appliance, auto, energy-saving products of consumption policy, to encourage the development of new consumption hotspot and consumption patterns. Continue to adopt financial subsidies and tax breaks and measures to stimulate energy-saving, environmental protection, green product demand guide consumption, upgrade. Two is to encourage and support production demand, consumer upgrades marketable, can guide consumption of industrial products. Seize development, construction and 3G wideband network convergence market opportunities, accelerate such software and service, modern logistics, e-commerce, industrial design and the industrial development of the financial product service, actively explore new areas. Three is to increase investment, optimize the technical transformation investment structure. In our manufacturing overall scale unceasingly expands, the most products supply, technical level of the industry as a whole under the condition of high technology, strengthens the enterprise reform is to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of industrial development and change of the important action. To establish technical modification mechanism, strengthen the central and local authorities and enterprises in technological transformation input. Continue to increase the people's livelihood, science and technology innovation, environmental protection etc. Weak field Four is formulated to stimulate consumption and improving the perfect relevant measures of residents' income. Increasing household income in the national income distribution of income and remuneration in primary distribution of income. Through taxation and transfer payment methods of different classes, regions, adjust the structure of income distribution between urban and rural areas, and gradually increase the income of low-income residents in the level of residents' consumption, improved fundamentally. At the same time, continue to perfect social security system and the development of social public undertakings and improve residents marginal propensity to consume.
(3) accelerate this year, ensure backward production task goal
According to the requirement of the sustainable development strategy, from the height of the interests of the state and the implementation of structure adjustment and backward productivity. Combined with the practice of regional development, good use of law, economy, technology and the necessary administrative measures, to ensure that this backward production target the task. One is full of laws and regulations and technical standards of the restriction of threshold fail to meet the requirements of the backward productivity resolutely eliminated. Strict control of "two" and overcapacity profession new project. The second is the capacity of the enterprise of backward compensation mechanism of interests, through a variety of means, promote the pipeline, backward production enterprise worker again obtain employment, actively supporting enterprise upgrading. Three is to finish the task backward productivity and the administrative punishment, the enterprises to strengthen supervision and inspection, to ensure that has announced 2087 enterprises backward productivity before September all close.
(4) promote industrial energy conservation and emission reduction, promote the development of circular economy
At present, our country is in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, and accelerate the development of energy consumption demand will still keep rising trend, our country economy development of resources and environment will be subject to constraints, economic development and energy shortage, environment protection and sharp contradiction between. Therefore, our only take a new road to industrialization, energy saving and emission reduction technology development, the development of recycling economy, improve efficiency, to relieve the pressure on the environment, resources, and promote sustainable economic and social development. One is to strengthen the guidance and classification of industry to support and encourage enterprises to increase technical renovation, eliminate backward in technology, environmental pollution and resource utilization of low technology, technology and equipment, the introduction of advanced equipment, energy saving and emission reduction. The second is the capital investment, investment, and subsidies by the economic lever, price, etc, from research and application, the promotion of various links to strengthen financial guidance, attract social capital investment, fully mobilize market in resource allocation. Three is to establish and perfect the scientific emission monitoring system, index system and evaluation system, ensure the actual results achieved energy conservation and emission reduction.
(5) actively promote m&a, and promote enterprise's international competitiveness
One should eliminate the institutional obstacles enterprise m&a. Cleaning is abolished all enterprise m&a and hinder fair competition rules, especially to eliminate trans-regional and cross ownership enterprise m&a. 2 to strengthen enterprise m&a policies to support and guidance. Strengthen and finance, taxation, land resources, social security departments, enterprises set up by reorganization merger of preferential policies, and encourage enterprises to properly solve the taxes and debts, such problems as employee, reduce cost and enterprise m&a quickening enterprise m&a process, strengthening of steel, 10 big key industries enterprise m&a. Three is to encourage innovation system, guided transformation mechanism. To further improve the corporate governance structure, integrated internal factors of production and industrial resources, establish effective production and management mode.
(6) to cultivate strategic industry, forming a new economic growth point
One should pay attention to and traditional industries. The strategic emerging industry development and upgrade traditional industries, increase closely combining use of high technology and advanced and applicable technologies to upgrade traditional industries, in traditional industrial transformation and upgrading of the development of new industries. Actively promote energy conservation and environmental protection, new energy and new materials, biological medicine, information network, high-end manufacturing industry and the development of new energy vehicles. 2 should adhere to innovation. In the new energy, new materials, etc to speed up national science and technology major projects, the overall DaiDongXing and read a lot of great success of key technologies, developed with independent intellectual property rights and the important strategic product market competition. Three highly cultivate market. Good market environment and the corresponding measures is the healthy development of strategic industry is an important foundation of the huge domestic market potential, and also the important strategic emerging industry development. Emerging industry in strategic development process, to use market advantages, seriously study the market, strengthen the cultivation of domestic market. Four is emerging industry to strengthen the investment strategy of overall planning, prevent the blind investment, YiHongErShang to prevent new overcapacity.
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Editor: lara