For the past two years, market movements basic accord with our early in the year 2009 judgment: a hundred crisis, hundred years is opportunity, commodity v-shaped reversal, By 2010, the entire commodity market is shaken up, by "quick cow" conversion became "slow cow".

Looking through 2011, we think, commodity still rising cycle, is currently in bull market of the second stage. The world economic recovery, and the macro environment remains were undermined foundations laid a commodity bull market. But leading world economic growth of China and the U.S. may in 2011 issued some new tightening policy, it will be on commodity prices constitute silenced, not rule out the possibility of big adjustments, next year's movements may be more tortuous.

The world economy is still rising trend

As is known to all, leading the world economic growth of two big engine, one is the United States, another is China. The two countries on the world economic situation of economic trends have important influence. Now some of the leading economic indicators shows that both economies are in steadily recovering, the two countries entity economy operation also are in steadily rising stage.

Major economy in January 2008-2010 November PMI trend

From its own economic development situation, even though this published a few tightening liquidity measure, but did not change the general trend of China's economic recovery, And from a boost China's economic growth of three carriages perspective, still present stable increasing trend, which indicates that the Chinese economy continues up well.

In October, the international monetary fund issued the latest issue of the world economic outlook, reported that global economic recovery promoting continuously, the report says, at the emerging and developing economies will still be leads global the main driving force of growth, recovery speed ahead in the developed countries. According to the IMF's latest forecasts, 2010 and 2011, expect the global economic growth will achieved respectively 4.8 percent and 4.2 per cent, emerging and developing economies output in 2010 and 2011 will respectively rose 7.1 percent and 6.4%, which the Chinese in the two years of economic growth is expected to maintain its leading position and 10.5% 9.6% remains unchanged. The developed economies in the two years of growth is 2.7% and 2.2%. IMF forecast is further indicates that the world economy was still in recovery of unlikely trend in secondary recession.

Commodity supply and demand relation remained tense

The macro economy increasing recovery, inevitable meeting pull the demand for commodities. Because of industrial supplies short-term won't change greatly by the demand, the price of influences of agricultural products, and revealed a steady growth in demand, supply is protected from the weather is bigger, so its price mainly by the supply side effects.

We first come to analyse and macro economy contact most closely industrial products.

Bronze as example, from the consumption structure, medium-small copper is mainly used for power electronics, electrical appliances and construction industry, November this year China power cables and power generation equipment, air conditioning, refrigerators, washing machines, respectively year-on-year growth slowest 32.89%, 11.88%, 33.63%, 23.72%; 28.89%, 1-11 months respectively year-on-year growth cumulative main, 10.37%, 28.45%, 29.44% 40.3,. With the first 11 months of copper pole yield 10.89% and refined supply growth, compared to 4.14 pos product output growth obviously faster. Therefore, this year China copper cash demand condition is not on the surface so slow, and terminal consumption growth still considerable. In the long run, the state grid corporation "1025" planning shows, grid will invest more than 1.7 trillion yuan, and the "11th five-year plan" period 1.2 trillion yuan compared sharply increased by 40%. In addition, 2011 in countryside, home appliance new MDX etc stimulating consumption policy will remain energetically, therefore, China needs a new round copper prices may still be rising impetus.

And another large foundation commodity rebar, there are around 50% of applied in real estate industry. According to the state bureau of the latest figures, 2011, China national indemnificatory anju engineering housing construction scale or would over 1,000 million sets, compared with 580 million sets of 2010, growth, thereby computation, 72.4% in 2011 indemnificatory anju engineering investment or will reach $1.4 trillion yuan, this undoubtedly will greatly stimulate rebar requirement, and reignite rise.

As a commodity market another mainstay of agricultural products, this year's cotton and sugar due to supply side appeared large problems, making its contradictions sharpened, thus walked out of a wave surging into the big market, the price every breakthrough old interval, began in new interval in operation. Next year, we think that prospects of the supply and demand tight situation will continue, so its prices will remain high in operation.

For beans and grease-like varieties, because its price, relative to other agricultural products is still smaller increase, so the price in 2011 barycenter is expected to overall up. Beauty beans are in bull market cycle, the South American soybean producing weather conditions, the USDA to beauty bean demand guesstimation adjustment, $index trend, north American soybean acreage race, all of these factors is expected to become trigger 2011 beauty bean QiJia rebound's outburst.

As a commodity leaders of crude, in other energy, raw material skyrocket, but in the bottom of consolidation for a year and a half years. In the next period of crude oil BuZhang possibility is very large, the situation of the Korean peninsula, probably become crude oil prices too. At present, the Korean peninsula unrest has been viewed as next year Asia is worth to pay close attention to main risk, therefore, 2011 QiJia material crude oil is facing another rise, or pushing up beans especially soybean oil QiJia. Plus global soybean oil inventory consumption slope to recent years low, is expected to 2011 soybean oil price trend relative soybeans and soybean meal will have greater rise space.

Worldwide inflation inevitable

Global liquidity, also resulted in commodity prices of important factor.

Our country at the central economic work conference, although the 2011 monetary policy by moderate loose steering dovish, but the national development and reform commission reported new size of credit still 7.5 trillion, and this year flat, equivalent to more than twice the normal year, so the Chinese market at present on the currency remains very abundant.

And America in 2009, use looser monetary policy, 2010 after the federal reserve announced starting on November second round quantification looser monetary policy, the fed will in 2011, end of June to buy $600 billion of us long-term national debt, The eurozone in this year using 110 billion euros salvage deep-set debt crisis of Greece and then decided to Ireland provide 850 billion euros in relief, the European central bank also on December 2nd, announced that would continue to eurozone 16 countries leading rates at 1%, this is the European central bank for the 20 months the interest rate at this historical lowest level, says it will continue to maintain the loose monetary policy, slow the pace of exit policy.

The world's major economies are to continue relatively loose monetary policy, make future worldwide inflation inevitable, but high inflation will concomitant with high economic growth. Currently the world economy has not yet reached high-speed growth period, so at present only appeared inflation, but along with the burgeoning economy keep going well, worldwide inflation will come, thus pushing up commodity prices.

Policy orientation may tend to squeeze

So far, commodity prices upward trend has not changed, restrict its price rises considerably main factor is the world's leading economies may be issued a series of tightening.

The central economic work conference, points out that next year's monetary policy will loose by moderate to steady, which suggests that country may well again a basket of control policy, to cope with rising prices.

And for a long time at low interest rates of American history, along with economic anabiosises gradually, also don't expel next year will come some such as raising interest rates, tighten policy, if these policies, will lead to the commodity market relatively substantially adjustment, this is 2011 investor needs to focus mainly on the market risk.

But history analysis also indicates that, has always been a rise of the cycle of capital market is also rising cycle, government tightening plays an important role in the early needs a process, the policy effect will be market "seal" rise, etc accumulated to a certain degree after will erupt.

Now should say commodity is still in the bull market rise the second band, but the second band will typically go more complex, time is long, originally the fluctuation among this large, but shouldn't due to the policy problems may cause market fluctuations will be very big.

Generally speaking, from the current development of the world economy, we can see the 2010 world economy will keep growth, with China headed by developing countries and the developing countries will become the world new economic growth momentum. Due to the vast number of developing countries, the industrial structure of main in the first and second industry development phase, each unit of GDP output need energy consumed and large amount of raw materials is larger, accordingly, its rapid economic development, will intensify the foundation energy and bulk materials demand. But global liquidity is willing cause global inflation, in this two major factors, half supported on commodity prices will continue to rise, commodity bull market pattern also won't change radically.

But at the same time, the growth of the world economy imbalance, two big engine in China and the United States of persistent and monetary policy may steering, give commodities price movements bring large uncertainty in 2010 after appearing rise sharply, do not eliminate to appear a certain degree of adjustment. But we think, any major adjustments have been investors buy good opportunity, but also related enterprises buying hedging good time, investors can use "big buy, small plunged fell small buy; the half, inverse small potential" investment strategies, grasp rhythm obtain return on investment.

Source "of Chinese textile net"

Author: temperamental predominance pre-figurative fierce kingdom editor: HongZhen