Expert thinks, this year will become the norm, first rate there will be two to three times

During the Spring Festival holiday last day (8) at night, people bank announced on February 9, since the date, upward financial organ renminbi benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points. And always choose vacation begins announce the selection in different, the central bank holiday ended when the announcement rates and unleashed strongly tighter monetary disinflationary signal.

Economists think, considering that economic growth will fall from 2010 gradually stabilised, is expected to roughly fluctuating range will remain at 9% to 10%, therefore this year between policy tightening tempo and intensity reference is the main variables C PI trend. Based on the annual price "former high low" after judgment, tightening monetary will present "QianJinHouSong" pattern. Expected first half of the year or two to three times and raised interest rates, and the second half of the adjustments will significantly weakened, if the fourth quarter C PI reduced to less than 4%, tightening actions will be suspended.

"The interest rate hikes corroborated previous we quarter 'three neat move' policy rate expectations, should be to January credit growth may still faster, January prices may because climate factors and the Spring Festival factors and overseas record new historical highs recently rising commodity prices of certain reflection." The state council development research center, financial institute vice director of ba shusong "economic reference newspaper reporters.

Ba shusong thinks, from the current trend in February see, one may be annual price highs, correspondingly include real estate policy and monetary policies of the control power is the most severe, the period of the year now year-round deflation policy framework has basic anacreontic, with the price pressure of gradually reduce tighter policy towards the market impact strength will weaken the PM I etc, and begun to recede, and also shows the price in aggregate demand driven by surging underpowered.

Industrial bank senior economist lu commissar say the interest rate hikes and to be released in January C PI data will innovate the high. In addition, in strict regulation under, house prices still continued to rise, low interest rates could be one of the factors. Based on the need of preventing "bubble", also should raise rates. He is expected to January C PI may break 5.1%, achieve 5.3% around, creating the epicycle highs. "To effectively prevent the second wave of inflation, interest rate hikes will becomes the norm, better-acknowledged this year will also raised interest rates three to four times." He said.

Current, the market for January's inflation situation widely anticipated higher. Cicc expected, January C PI might rise to about 5.5 per cent. The state information center forecast report says the latest price rises, first quarter, China is still too large, the pressure is expected to C PI will rise by about 5%. Industrial securities expected, 1 to march C PI respectively, 4.9%, 5.2% 5.5%. Even some experts expect for the Spring Festival and climate factors promote, in January and February of C P I highs will exceed 6%.

Nomura securities expectations, due to C PI inflation highs and strong economic growth, expected to China's future will further tightening monetary policy, have long, large-scale rates cycle. The agency's study reports, 2011 year-round, China will interest rate hikes 100 basis points, RRR hikes 250 basis points, and will produce more macro prudent measures.

Experts think, symmetric raised interest rate, also intended to rein in January faster growth in credit, will benefit the credit resources disposition. But lu and gaott said, raising rates cannot replace the RRR adjustment, is expected to February could continue to raise 1 time 0.5 percentage points of reserve rate, maintain "quarter will raise once every month on average RRR" judgment.

Source "of Chinese textile net"

Author: LiuZhenDong editor: HongZhen