January 24 domestic commodity futures market, cotton in 3 million yuan pass above to remain unconventional and drive related varieties PTA closed at harden.
China's customs figures, by 2010 China imported 284 million tons of cotton, 86 percent year-on-year, further lit on cotton global supply concerns. Last Friday ICE period cotton, cotton contract touch harden board inside dish present your chased me out of the situation. But because of growing nearly, big department of textile enterprises will choose to cut down or, plus recently have the survey in December 2010 China cotton business inventory optimistic, so recent speculation cotton supply and demand gap and little space.
Crazy cotton is PTA harden incentives, raw material PX push is the strong support from the supply and demand. Shihua finance news analyst wu yue pointed out that new capacity is insufficient, PX plus device maintenance, causing the PX prices early in 2011 rise considerably, appeared PX and PTA earnings exceed 1000 yuan/ton both rare phenomenon. By January 21, Asian PX closed at 1633 dollars a ton FOB price is already close to Korea, the PX 2008 highs 1685 dollars/tonne, according to the present price, amount of PTA PX theory production cost is 9600 yuan/ton or so.
At present, the market now is concerned about the 2011 first half PTA industrial chain pattern change of 2010 the fourth quarter to the first half of this year, China polyester production have been expected to put into production, press about 345 tons to produce a ton of polyester need to consume 0.865 tons of PTA calculation, this part of the increased productivity need to consume nearly 300 tons of PTA, meanwhile, PTA totaling only 150 tons of production. The market for the supply of PTA suspicious.
2010 type "crazy" difficult to repeat itself
Review past 2010, domestic commodity prices, including agricultural comprehensive rising trend more eye-catching, with cotton, sugar, as a representative of the soft commodities and corn, wheat prices are staple foods such as the highs, refresh agricultural staged the unstoppable rise span more than market. Wu yue believes this year's domestic commodity market will face more complex conditions, the domestic balanced food supply and strong policy adjustment to market intention added greater uncertainty. But on domestic demand, international agricultural prices, extreme weather multiple and inflation expectations remain strong and so on many help, is expected to rise factors under the action of new annual produce long bull market pattern will still continue.
Industry information institutions "business club" editor-in-chief LiuXinTian thinks, commodity markets 2010 has actually entering into a new round boom cycle. Reason has 3: firstly, the impact of the global economic crisis fade, commodity market external environment is in 2008, 2009 tends to anacreontic, and the foreseeable future market environment is stable, Secondly, for nearly 18 months of market "warmed, not simply understand a moment of" rally "or" callback ", its should is a new cycle of front-end and rising stage, Thirdly, whether YuanLiaoLei cotton, mineral, or industrial chain downstream of the stainless steel, chemical products, etc., in 2009, the second half and the 2010 market performance has a lot of generality, the industrial chain of rose across and energy, chemicals, plastics, steel, precious metals of whole plate strong, shows that this commodity markets are still.
Commodity round cycle will experience rising roughly, sorting and callback three stages. LiuXinTian thinks, at present the commodity markets are in rising and finishing intermediate intermediate stage. 2011 commodity markets are still rising reason and motivation, but objective view current product price, most are in "the history of the highest" interval. In the industrial economy and market of purchasing power recovery, commodity inflation difficult customer order, more like an capital game. Therefore, 2011 commodities hard on 2010 type madness.
Source "of Chinese textile net"
Editor: lara