Recently, a "methanol futures are expected to years of news sparked listed" attention. "Economic reference news reporter to understand that even though the specific time to market has been set, some futures company has begun preparations. Industry insiders point to improve, methanol futures listed price transparency, help our country methanol methanol enterprises and their downstream industry effectively evade the risks of methanol price fluctuations, strengthening Chinese pricing power, form international competitive methanol prices.

China methanol production soar

According to understand, methanol is an important organic chemical raw materials in the world, the consumption based organic chemical raw materials after ethylene, propylene, benzene. Methanol can be used to produce organic chemical products, energy and automotive fuel, pesticides, methanol protein etc., its main production raw material is natural gas, coal or heavy oil.

The 2010 global methanol production more than 5000 tons, China is the largest producer and consumer. In recent years, with methanol in energy application trade usage increases, become the global energy demand the mainspring of methanol demand growth.

Business 002095) its precious (commodity material business - business club (100ppi. Com) energy agency analysts ma told the economic reference news reporter, at present our country already approaching 40 million tons methanol production in China, and the 2010 methanol apparent consumption is about 2092 tons. In recent years, the foreign imports low impact the domestic market, methanol large in China in 2010, about 519 tons methanol imports accounted for one quarter of apparent consumption.

Everbright futures think, in recent years China has been in surplus methanol production state, 2006 to 2010 in Chinese methanol capacity utilization rate averaged about 51 percent. Domestic consumption growth far keep pace with methanol production and imports growth. Expected 2011 China will add 1110 tons methanol production methanol production capacity, at that time, China will amount to 48 million tons.

Wang think, methanol traditional downstream formaldehyde, acetic acid, M T BE etc have loading not methanol so huge capacity, emerging downstream products has gone into the dimethyl ether industrial development bottleneck, "methanol olefin" technology and methanol fuel is still in the exploration stage, is not yet big range promotion. Therefore, our country methanol excess capacity phenomenon seriously.

Methanol prices volatile

Methanol prices frequent fluctuations, amplitude is bigger, 2006 and 2008 had gone through three big "roller coaster" market. In 2006, according to data methanol price fluctuation reach 82.9% in 2007, 56.3 reached. In June 2008, domestic methanol prices grew to about 4500 yuan/ton, then went way down the highs, arrive early 2009 about 1700 yuan/ton lowlands, then downturn consolidation, slightly rebounded, at present domestic methanol average about some 2,700 yuan/ton, price volatility still much more frequent.

In addition, our country methanol market fluctuations regional differences is bigger, no nationwide unified pricing mechanism, is mainly decided the various regions of the supply and demand of methanol prices, local northwestern region of methanol prices because the cost price is low, and the eastern and southern China region price can sent hundreds of yuan per ton.

Wang think, affect methanol fluctuations in the price of many factors, one is the raw material upstream market, our country methanol device about 70 percent are coal, coal prices on head methanol, another great influence methanol cost in China and some gas methanol enterprise, winter gas for natural gas waste will also cause bigger influence; methanol enterprise 2 it is downstream market volatility will also cause bigger impact of methanol market, but because methanol excess capacity, the downstream phenomenon is relatively serious market demand in recent years more downturn; Three is methanol industry starts, large parking overhaul of methanol enterprise will cause bigger market supply affect methanol. In addition, the domestic methanol prices are subject to import methanol macro policies, market price, the influence of hype.

Futures launch ripe

Price volatility brings to the enterprise big market risk, launch methanol futures appear accordingly very be necessary. Everbright futures think, open markets lead to price fluctuation, make trade methanol uncertainties, and the futures market to make enterprise to circumvent these risk possible. The launch will strengthen methanol futures price transparency, make methanol enterprise to better manage the price risk, management cash flow, the more effectively forecast profit, plan production.

"Our methanol futures launch time is ripe, methanol chemical industry base material, a wide range of USES, the current domestic many electronic trading markets such as zhangjiagang chemical electronic trading market, and others have methanol products, they spot trading of rotational acetabular osteotomy already have many methanol futures features." Ma said.

Everbright futures chemical energy analysts ZhongMeiYan told the economic reference news reporter, from market perspective, methanol futures launch has great potential, will give the market liquidity, and brings certain for excess capacity has now been serious use is also a Gospel. Judging from the international market, our fight for international market pricing have help.

According to understand, methanol industry production enterprises, mainly by traders and application of industrial enterprises, is very long. China methanol production enterprise has about 200, upstream market involves coal, crude oil, downstream involves such as formaldehyde products, these industry enterprise can participate in methanol futures hedging.

From the concrete operations perspective, everbright futures think, methanol enterprise can buy a is also the factors affecting products, such as methanol futures to hedge, thus reduce methanol related enterprises face price risk, realizing the maximization of enterprise value goal.

The international market have ethanol futures

Jinpeng futures researcher in ZhangXiaoLei accept the economic reference newspaper reporters have been, at this stage of foreign domestic futures, methanol if the first to launch methanol, the China futures in this species have pricing advantage. International similar varieties is ethanol, which mainly includes futures in March 2005 cbot futures, launched ethanol May 2007 Brazil launched the ethanol business futures exchange futures.

ZhangXiaoLei said, with oil prices rising and the increasingly strong environmental protection requirement, methanol and ethanol as clean biofuels alternative attribute thrusting its demand, rising prices. Brazil because rich resources, the earliest sugarcane ethanol into the industrial production. At present, a major customer of fuel ethanol in Brazil, the United States, India, etc.

Our methanol gasoline application has already entered the substantive application stage. By 2010, the vehicle methanol gasoline (M15) "standard in May this year, the formal introduction of shanxi and shaanxi, Shanghai, national workers believe department will direct involvement high percentage of methanol gasoline promotion plan. "ZhangXiaoLei prediction, later methanol demand will have to rise significantly, the price also will gradually higher.

Source "Chinese textile nets"

Edit: lara