Industrial strategy: high quality textile clothing retail enterprise growth performance certainty is strong, plate valuations obvious advantages (seven Wolf 11 years 23 times or so, dynamic p/e ratio's horse and nine animal husbandry king about 25 times, luo lai, rich Anna and mendale three home textile enterprise 30 times or so, weixing 15 times or so), and MianJia down to business, in the current market is sluggish, the retail sector proving inconclusive;

Recommend combination: we continue to recommend high quality textile clothing retail enterprise: seven Wolf, luo lai, rich Anna, mendale, weixing, sen horse and nine animal husbandry, moreover the king of yantai spandex aramid 1414 industrialization project put into production, aramid 1313 continue, and attention. Nokias

Industry view

Cotton continue to be a key factor of influence in the second half of the industry: textile raw material prices for basic MianJia fluctuations, and with three months since the fall of the occurrence peak MianJia, causing the price of the raw material, manufacturing enterprise profit margins down center decreases in price, the whole industry chain before stabilising business hard to restore normal; But raw material price, obvious textile and clothing retail enterprise management to reduce the cost pressure, on the one hand, to improve the stability and gross margin, on the other hand help consumers purchase intention rise, so as to promote sales growth improved;

The fourth quarter, MianJia may stabilises, we think that the operation interval May 20000 yuan or so: October, before and after the market, MianJia showed in new situations of supply and demand determine operational interval; Considering the consumer acceptance and the industry chain operation and the national policy, we think the future is in 20000 yuan or so the possibility of fluctuation is bigger;

Policy will be in the second half of the industry in the operation of the play great role: the state industrial transformation into operation stage may real policy to lower the export tax rebate rate for mark, management may also strengthen labor contract law, environmental protection, energy consumption and so on the original policy executive power, so as to promote the industry transformation, in addition to exchange rate fluctuations and interest rates will also affect industry operation. Policy adjustment although may result in the short term manufacturing enterprise benefit exports damaged, but help define the market competition order, prevent excessive competition took place, be helpful for large and medium-sized enterprise long-term development;

We still maintain industry expected increase benefits before unchanged: that export growth at around 15%, and domestic sales income growth around 25%.

Risk warning

At present MianJia has fallen, so next year textile and clothing products prices will no longer increases. When the price is eliminated, the sales growth factors can improve the market is mainly concerns. We think that retail enterprise rely on extension expansion, and add endogenous original brand position, achieve sales and prices conversion is fully capable of, is also possible. Statistics from the quarter to see, the domestic market sales growth have finally started to rise again (chart 10);

Center daily news than expected annual report or risk. From the current market situation, and order meeting despite the performance expectations raised the space is not large, but that is cut; In the market competition, single enterprise's management risk there is. We think the future textile clothing retail stocks will increasingly differentiation, whether growth performance valuation levels difference or will be more obvious.

Source "the Chinese textile nets"

Edit: Emma