Cotton prices at home and abroad will close half an year, although recently have stabilises in shock, but MianJia down state from the sequela "inevitable. From domestic cotton imports and textile clothing export situation can see, in domestic demand and foreign cotton "weak price" is not high, hard to attract many enterprises, and the international import a lot of cotton textile demand also lead to domestic textile export enterprises are facing the crisis. At present, the domestic textile clothing export quantity fell.

While India because the crop, so the market is expected to continue to decline in the next three to four years India very could become a net importer of cotton, to start with the China cotton, and race and resources in Europe and the us textile clothing market. As the world's top cotton importers, if such predictions may realize, so for China, striking is huge.

As is known to all, China has always been a big country, and India cotton import so far does not appear, the import of cotton has been a cotton exporter. In 2010 because of American cotton price "as India" cotton, which India cotton exports began to increase, domestic for India cotton dependent on show. But from the beginning March 2011, cotton imports gradually atrophic, by the end of 2010 the significant contribution in India cotton this time also lost market share to its imports, domestic is greatly reduced. So experts predict that in 2010 and 2011, China's cotton consumption in 10 million, and the annual output of about 6.6 million tons, in 2015, China cotton demand is expected to be 13 million tons. And the experts say, it is difficult to improve China's output, because last year or reduce production. In India, 2019-in 2020, India's domestic textile industrial consumption is expected to be 7.02 million tons, domestic residents FangQi clothing exports will greatly improve, there will be two countries for cotton scene.

But, after we on the two countries cotton sowing area, production, yield, the cotton consumption, import and export and other factors of statistical analysis, and finally the conclusion and the market had expected to be different. First, through the analysis of cotton consumption trends can be found in India, 1999-2003 years is gentle, 2003 years of consumer spending growth in 2007-is, so far in 2009 consumption increase rapidly. And the economic cycle the same principle, namely the has now reached the "boom", so the next cycle should be a recession. According to the law of consumption have time India is expected to change, so after 2013 in India's consumption will gradually declined, to 2019 cotton consumption is not achieve the above of 7.02 million tons. If the average growth rate to consider the consumption of words, so in 2013 China cotton consumption of 11.15 million tons, making record high.

Secondly, in the import and export and consumption of relationships, increased consumption and export reduce consumption in India, show that expands; Increased consumption, import reduce that China consumption are shrinking. But the result is increased consumption, export India does not cut down, 2011-2013 years, India has been cotton exports during is positive, so for the above conclusion can only one explanation, that is a substantial increase in the yield was ebbing, deal with domestic consumption is abundant, doesn't need to import cotton to domestic demand. China's consumption increase at the same time, a small increase imports, they are not present, the negative correlation between the China cotton consumption won't atrophy.

The same method, the same idea, different results, concludes that the future 3, 4 years, India, China's import export cotton cotton phenomenon will not change. In the pattern is not changed, India also do not have as the world's top textile industrial countries, but the future or more in the future, anything is possible.

Source "the Chinese textile nets"

Edit: lara