In the national cotton cotton and industrial technology system, according to cotton harvest released late this year, cotton outlook report, for decision-making.

A. 1-July cotton industry economy operation several conditions

1, cotton production main features. A good price is subject to the stimulation of cotton area, present restorative growth. 2 it is cotton grows well. The medium-term appears "dry weather, heat" features favorable to drought, although cotton growth mainly focuses on the disaster, but JueShou area is few. China cotton growth index (CCGI) 4-August for 121, showed that growth better in the same period last year more than twenty percent, better than ten percent perennial. 3 it is this year is a harvest year. August 23, grew optimistic, harvest to grow. If the weather doesn't appear normal, the late continued and the basin and bad the bell disasters waterlogging stains, output is expected to be higher, and the innovation of good quality.

2, in the first half, a hired cost increase cash in 9 years in a row, the "rising things work double long" situation. Monitoring results, cotton production in the first half of cash in a 588.3 yuan/mu, up 70.1 yuan/mu, increased by 13.5%. Among them material cost increased to 52.1 yuan/mu, accounting for 74.3% of the increase in; Artificial cost increased to 18.1 yuan/mu, increased by 23.5%. Throughout the year is expected to cost at least rose 202.1 yuan/mu, 1444.7 yuan/mu, or 14.0% from top to bottom.

3, cotton yarn production and export quantity growth fell back. 1-July cotton yarn production 16.015 million tons, up 6.1%, a growth rate dropped 9.2 percentage points. Shows that our cotton yarn production capacity, but a turning point raw cotton consumption base and a shortage of cotton situation will not change. 1-July textile clothing export 137.72 billion us dollars, up by 25.5%. Among them: 1-June prices 21.49%; Only the number increased by 3.88%, a drop of 12.5%. Knitting clothing exports of 9.5 billion pieces of clothing, accounting for the entire 70.2% of exports, only increased by 3.68%. Domestic demand to keep exuberant situation, 1-June limitation above apparels retail year-on-year growth of 23.5%, if deduct price increase in the number of limited.

4, decrease imports. 1-July raw cotton import 1.48 million tons, 13.4% year-on-year drop

5, MianJia "roller coaster", enter the August declined to slow down stabilised, slightly saw signs back. MianJia sharply in the first half year-on-year at home and abroad to plummet annulus comparing down significantly. China cotton price Index (CC Index) from January of 27915 yuan/t down to July of 22181 yuan/t, fell 20.5%, the highest than March 30733 yuan/t fell by 27.8%. A index from January's 182.66 cents per lb down to the July 122.51 cents per lb, fell 32.9%; The highest than March 229.6 cents per lb by up to 46.6%.

In August the price drop to slow down stabilised, recent trend to bounce back. August than July Index fell by 12.5%, and for CC decreased by 7.4% A Index. Eight latest three weeks for a slow range double digits, around the back. See slightly

Second, showed prices looking

Analysis points out, the temporary ShouChu, cost and inflation three elements on showed prices and the direction of the trend of the biggest influence.

(a) on the market will produce demonic acquisition support effect. March on the introduction of the temporary ShouChu price 19800 yuan/t, deduct 1000 yuan/t processing and transportation cost is 18800 yuan/t, seed cotton price level 328 in 8.96 yuan/kg, is a TuoDe the acquisition. In the interim ShouChu price the support, showed the price is on the reason to stabilise.

(2) in cost and inflation, driven by price fluctuations in showed up and picks up increase the chance. According to the monitoring results in the first half, material fee increases 52.10 yuan/mu, estimating the cost of lint rising 612.9 RMB/t to digest. Annual expenses rise is expected to artificially 150 yuan/mu, estimating the cost of lint rising 1764.7 RMB/t. Material and artificial expense amount to push up the cost of 2377.6 RMB/t, namely in temporary ShouChu price 18800 yuan/t on the basis of the 12.6% increase to 2377.6 RMB/t to digest the pressure of the rising costs. This and January showed reasonable forecast expected price will be in 2.1 ~ 22000 yuan/t fit between. If plus land rent and price rise of the work for private use, reasonable price of 2.4 ~ 26000 yuan/t.

Against inflation, firm prices for macro-control this year's top priority. CPI year-round control target for 4% ~ 5%, 5.4% in the first half, July for 6.5%, and in the recent 3 years in high. Recent economic circles that, judge inflation inflection point three factors: one is with controllable but have liquidity lag, may be in 3 ~ 4 quarter inflation down a thrust. 2 it is in commodity prices when there is abate, international input sex of the controllable. 3 it is Labour costs continue to rise will be lasting tension, when inflation turn in no signs (2011-8-12), ba shusong.

(3) the effect of several factors showed prices

1, from view, cotton production ratio of rising food prices. Your lowest price increase year by year, the national grain wheat farmer price this year the Yellow River 1.98 ~ 2.00 yuan/kg, high quality of high-gluten wheat 2.20 ~ 2.50 yuan/kg, so far, no start 1.90 yuan/kg of minimum reserve price; Food prices rise MianJia drive the favorable recovery.

2, futures, 1-to see from a sharp slowdown in July, August reason stabilises (and/recently. Zhengzhou CF109 from January of 32645 yuan/t high down to July of 20955 yuan/t, fell 35.8%. International, New York October the intercontinental exchange of the futures price from April highest 152.53 cents down to the July 106.71 cents, a drop 30.3% / LBS. In August, by the U.S. credit rating down, in the second week of the month the influence of domestic and foreign futures market prices to fall, New York fell by 5.67%, intercontinental October fell by 1.67%, CF109 zhengzhou third week stabilised slightly up. If the United States launched the third round of quantitative easing, the price of every space increases.

3, from cotton to see high cotton, extend the time of digestion. A review is high in 2003 in half a year, cotton digest in 2004 JinKouMian low has had the obvious "dilution effect", and this year has no reason is higher than domestic and international MianJia spending power shortage. 2 it is temporary ShouChu price the crackdown on the market is very big, forcing 2010 "high cotton" "hard"; Plus enterprise financing difficult, in order to keep backbone workers have to take "open four from the six". Due to insufficient, FuJi power consumption and start increasing, July 2.446 million tons of cotton production in DuoFang questioned, and high price of cotton took longer to digest.

4, from export perspective, the international consumer weak, the uncertain factors increase. "The world economy is still fragile, recovery is not balanced" (and, the IMF chief, add DE 2011-7-6); The global economy faces a "new and more dangerous" stage (Robert zoellick, the bank's President, 2011-8-13); Early August, the United States, Europe debt crisis and the American stock market turmoil, credit downgraded, 2 weeks global stock markets shrink $4 trillion. Beauty, the European Union, Japan and other developed economies have to reduce GDP, plus some countries such as political upheaval, global economic growth to slow down, consumer market is still weak. The United States or push the third round of quantitative easing, pushed up prices.

5, from resources to see, the global cotton production increases. ICAC July forecast global cotton increased by 8%, the total area is expected to increase 10.7% to 27.42 million t, because of inadequate consumption inventory increase, does not support prices upward.

3. Prepare for a rainy day, meet the production and sell cotton difficult to prevent "positive" will be the priority of cotton this year

According to cotton harvest, the guard against "sell cotton difficult" as the priority of cotton this year to grasp.

In view of the temporary ShouChu provide strong support for the market, and the detailed rules for the implementation of expectation on as early as possible; Timely start, open the acquisition of promise. Cash

Source "the Chinese textile nets"

Edit: lara