In the worsening European sovereign debt problems continue to kill investor confidence, the euro against the dollar exchange rate in 2011 the second last trading day of a new low 15 months.

On Thursday, the euro fell against the yen low to ten years. However, even though the euro has this month fell 5%, some observers predicted the collapse of scene and euro large-scale did not become a reality.

On Thursday afternoon, New York in midday euro against the dollar euro for $1.2961. Earlier the same day, the euro against the dollar in 2011 once set the record low of $1.2858 against the euro. This situation and most Wall Street analysts expected ─ ─ consistent analysts had expected at the end of the year euro against the dollar will quote about $1.30.

However, the exchange rate is still better than most dim expected a much higher. Consultation organization Commonwealth Foreign Exchange of a analysts had expected, the euro will touch again low in 2010, fell to below $1.19. And with the end of 2010 the exchange rate of $1.3445, compared to also have no low too much.

Flag group (Citigroup) senior foreign currency strategists Anderson (Greg Anderson) said, the reason is not market did not try to shorting the euro; Between 2011 and, the market had numerous short selling, but did not effective.

According to citigroup expected next year, the euro will drop to $1.20. But, Anderson said, see from model, euro exchange rate will be about $1.10. The model considers to Germany and the United States between national debt spreads over the factors.

Speculators are still see empty euros. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commodity Futures Trading top latest weeks data show that by the end of December 20,, the euro has more than the head position clear $18 billion, at least four years to set a high. The so-called head position is to point to bet on clearance of the euro against the dollar depreciation amount of money bet against the dollar and euro appreciation of the difference between the amount of money.

And in May 2011, the $1.4940 the plate there than high, euro exchange rate has dropped 14%, but at this time of Europe's leaders are still trying to solve high debt levels, the borrowing costs such as rising scheme to reach a consensus.

However, investors always capricious. Some see empty euro bets with no profits were abandoned. It also makes the euro fell and this month in September compared to fall to narrow. In September, the euro fell 7%, when the euro in January for the first time since the touch was $1.30.

Many investors and analysts predict that, 2012 years ago a few months, the euro exchange rate would drop substantially. For the first quarter of next year the euro exchange rate expected most concentrated in between $1.20 and $1.25.

Even those who think that the euro will orderly dropped also don't expel euro collapse may appear.

The Pacific Investment Management company (Pacific Investment Management Co.) global bond portfolio is responsible for boxer (Scott Mather) party earlier this month is expected to, the euro in early next year will drop to $1.20, but he said, the euro and the dollar tumbled to next year 1-1 level it is not impossible.

He said, severe economic recession, outside of the Greek government debt default and other happened or some countries from the euro zone may result in the euro plummeted.

However, there are some positive factors of the euro. Some investors are high benchmark lending rates euro attracted and bought euros. The federal reserve low compared to near zero interest rate, the benchmark lending rates higher euro, also more reassuring.

Source "the Chinese textile nets"

Edit: lara