Recently, zheng cotton QiJia continue to steadily rebound. Although investors to demand is still have some concern, but the upward trend market constantly consolidate, the country has seen demonic collection policy effect. The author thinks that, from the collection and the new annual farmers look, cotton prices for some time to come, will remain steady rise trend.
The new annual planting area reduction
According to ICAC January global cotton supply and demand condition of the forecast 2012/2013 annual global cotton planting area will be decreased by 8%, to 33.3 million ha; Output decreased by 6%, to 25.1 million tons. In addition to the United States, uzbekistan and Australia, other cotton production national production is expected to decline. Our country cotton market monitoring system also cotton acreage of its own investigation, the results showed that the national cotton 2012/2013 intention covers an area of 72.941 million mu, up to reduce 6.476 million mu, for 8.2% disproportion. Planting area of the sharp drop in reason, on the one hand, as the country's cotton growing areas planting intention shrunk dramatically, on the other hand is mainly because 2011 cotton production and marketing enterprises downstream gloomy, labor costs, seed cotton purchase prices keep falling. Planting area of cuts will directly affect the cotton output, plus 2012 years senior cotton tight supply and demand, it will not MianJia to form apparent support.
Cotton is vulnerable to confidence
When cash sales, flawed cotton farmers and cotton enterprises watched pale market outlook, market performance for active hand in store. And when MianJia gradually stabilising, investors is to increase confidence, hand in reserves will gradually lower. In the spot price fell below 19800 yuan/DunShi, the national collection to begin. As the spot price gradually low, the reserves, also reached the peak. And then, as MianJia stabilising picks up, the reserves gradually began to decline. A week before the Spring Festival only there were sporadic collection, of which the main reason is the first XinJiangMian prices firm, cotton is vulnerable to confidence, appear store signs cotton.
High grade cotton resources is popular
At present, China's actual total collection for cotton 2.47 million tons, according to 7.36 million tons of cotton yield estimation, the actual charge accounts for about one-third of the total reserves, from 3 million tons of collection target and 530000 tons. After 3 million tons to accomplish the task collection, the average daily reserves to 10000 tons. Because the downstream enterprises after starting time to late in the national collection, plus demand present grim, cotton farmers will still pay store will be more intense, therefore, to complete the task of 3 million tons of collection question is not big. 3 million tons and 1 million tons of import collection, GuoChuMian purchase amount to 4 million tons. In march, the market is expected to after high cotton resources would be more nervous, or will promote MianJia rise.
The new annual collection expected support obvious
In early 2011 the state versus the grain and processing, the author established the 19800 yuan/tons of cotton price collection, this policy has produced very good role demonic. Assuming that 2012 collection of cotton prices still according to 2011 calculation method, the 2012 years of cotton prices are expected to collection in 21200 yuan/tons. Affected by the national collection expected support, MianJia difficult to drop substantially.
To sum up, the national collection influence, high grade will be very tight cotton later. Because the new annual cotton acreage greatly reduced expected, with the downstream enterprises increase after start, the factors will appear constantly. MianJia will adjust by low is expected to rise steadily.
(the author units: Holly futures)
Source "the Chinese textile nets"
Author: ChenZongHao editor: Emma