Recently held in Qingdao in 2013 China international conference, cotton textile practitioners gathered from many nations, global cotton and textile situation are analyzed and prospect. The new annual cotton, global cotton planting situation how; Has not yet been fully get rid of the impact of the financial crisis in Europe and the terminal consumer market, the demand for cotton products and how? These problems will affect not only a new season of cotton price trend and cotton textile products sales, will also about import purchasing plan of cotton spinning enterprises in our country.

Production forecasts slightly inventories continued to rise

At the meeting, parties on New Year's cotton output is expected to give some attention. According to the United States department of agriculture forecast (by August 1 to July 31 of next year's annual international cotton shall prevail), 2013/2014, and the United States cotton markets around the world will still be affected by climate, production and demand uncertainty, 2013/2014 global cotton planting area is 34 million hectares, is expected to reduce 1% on the previous year (261000 hectares), yield is expected to reduce to 753 kg/ha; Although India and Brazil production increased, but given the expected decline in cotton production in the United States and China, the annual global cotton production or for 117.8 million bales, compared with last year reduced by 3%.

Expectancy, cotton production has not eliminated the industry concern about the inventory growth. From the point of global cotton inventory, market conditions have obvious oversupply. Related statistical forecasts, 2011/2012, global cotton inventories rose by 5.6 million tons; 2012/2013 global cotton stocks may add more than 300 ten thousand tons; In 2013/2014, will also be an increase of 1.7 million tons. Cotton in this season, the growth of the global cotton consumption is less than 200000 tons, from this point view, global cotton production has excess.

Allen treasure Tan Andong cotton, chief executive, said in the world's cotton supply and demand balance, 2011/2012 world ending stocks has grown to 92.7 million bales, reached an all-time high, and it has been close to the annual consumption, the inventory for the whole cotton industry is clearly too high, and can lead to cotton farmers and cotton spinning enterprises unable to forecast the next cotton prices.

Drought and monsoon ChanMian mainly domestic

On New Year's cotton production forecast, British courtney Luke's editor Ray Butler said: "the cotton production is closely related to climate and cotton farmers growing willingness to, American cotton fell, output is expected to Indian cotton yields edged up slightly. Due to the favorable factors of planting period delay, Brazil's cotton output is expected to rebound sharply."

As the world's third largest cotton producer, 2013/2014 U.S. cotton crop is expected to reach 3 million tons, 19% lower than the previous year. Cotton outlook to the United States department of agriculture committee chairman Carol Skelly said, American cotton production decline is mainly due to two reasons: one is the all alternative crop prices are relatively high, this will reduce the cotton production planting area; Secondly, a lengthy drought in main growing regions in the southwestern United States. And the United States department of agriculture forecasts in May, if the drought continues, the United States will continue to decline, cotton farmers of cotton will, in turn, will lead to a 10% drop in New Year's planting area.

Is different with the United States, the Indian cotton farmers because cotton profitable and growing enthusiasm. If normal monsoon rainfall, India's cotton output is expected to 27 million 2013/2014 bag, year-on-year increase of 2%. Ray Butler said: "India has started growing genetically modified cotton, but the share is small, so the cotton production to the whole effect is limited. However, India to continue to expand cotton output, the industry technology progress and crop management system has yet to be."

In particular Brazil cotton market, because is located in the southern hemisphere, the relative delay time of planting, conducive to the cotton market supply and demand information, help for the planting decision to make the necessary adjustments, reduce risk and maximize profit. Ray Butler predicted that 2013/2014 Brazilian cotton harvest area of nearly 1.1 million hectares, 22% increase from a year earlier, the output will also be recovered.

Emerging markets will raise cotton consumption

In addition to the output and inventory, the cotton industry and also pay attention to terminal consumer trends. As the economic recovery is expected to increase, a new annual cotton consumption and its positive impact on inventory consumption was high hopes. According to cotton outlook to the United States department of agriculture committee chairman Carol Skelly, over the past few years, American consumers use cotton quantity presents the downward trend. In 2012, cotton consumption per capita is only 11.7 kg, the main cause of this phenomenon is the synthetic fiber products gradually replace the cotton products. But she believes in the excellent characteristics of cotton goods cognitive deepen, American consumers in 2012/2013 and 2013/2014 cotton usage or will recover gradually.

In a New Year's cotton consumption, research institutions and enterprise representatives generally bullish on emerging markets such as India, Bangladesh and Vietnam. DML group director Chirag Lakhani puts said that India is the world's second largest cotton producer, consumer and exporter. Benefited from the rapid development of economy, India's textile industry is moving up the value chain. 2012/213 of India's cotton strong local demand, domestic consumption has increased by more than 170 packages. If the policy of investment in India to further open its cotton consumption is likely to surpass the U.S. in the coming years. At the same time, Bangladesh and Vietnam's cotton consumption growth is strong, too. Ray Butler, points out that, due to the relatively low labor costs, the two countries' foreign investment amount increase gradually, the cotton spinning industry development speed. In the past 7 years, Vietnam's cotton consumption more than doubled.

Cotton is loved by people of fiber varieties, recent research results also confirmed this point. According to the international cotton association cotton companies in the United States and the United States "lifestyle", research shows that consumers become more and more value. In Italy, although consumers to buy in reducing the number of clothing, clothing quality is improve, can reveal the grade of the clothing is the most popular with consumers. With the

Will personage points out, to restore to cotton in the clothing and household apparel industry status, you must create and reshape the market demand, make consumers, brands and retailers to understand the value and importance of cotton, found the lost market share.

The source "of Chinese textile net"